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The asymptotic mean squared error is the leading large-sample approximation to the sum of variance and squared bias of an estimator. Minimizing it balances stochastic variation against systematic error; the resulting choice must still satisfy the assumptions used in the approximation.

Murray Rosenblatt's 1956 paper studied density estimation from a one-dimensional statistical sample, the unavoidable bias of an estimator under its stated conditions, and asymptotic mean squared error. It is an early foundation of kernel density estimation. ^[ref]. Emanuel Parzen's 1962 paper developed statistical consistency and asymptotic normality for probability density function estimates and studied estimation of the mode. ^[ref].

The authors' interests help explain the connection with smoothing. In a conversation recorded in 2006 and published in 2009, Rosenblatt recalled that his density estimation work grew out of estimation of the time-series spectral density and emphasized the connection with a smoothed histogram. This is his retrospective account of the motivation. ^[ref]. Parzen's original paper lists Stanford University as his affiliation; its opening frames the problem as recovering both a probability density function and its mode from independent and identically distributed random variables. ^[ref].

Write $R(v)={\int }_{\mathbb{R}}v(u{)}^{2}du$. The kernel density estimator with bandwidth $h>0$ isSufficient conditions are that $K$ be a nonnegative symmetric probability density function with $R(K)<\infty$ and finite nonzero second moment ${\mu }_2(K)=\int u^{2}K(u)du$, and that $h\to 0$, $nh\to \infty$. Symmetry and the second-moment assumption give $\int uK(u)du=0$. The expectation is a convolution:Taylor's theorem with integral remainder givesThe zeroth-order term integrates to $f(x)$, and the first-order term vanishes. The second derivative is bounded and continuous, so dominated convergence, with dominating function proportional to $u^{2}K(u)$, yieldsCombining this with the supplied leading variance gives the asymptotic mean squared errorWhen $f(x)>0$ and $f^{\prime \prime }(x)\ne 0$, its derivative is $-R(K)f(x)/(n{h}^2)+{\mu }_2(K{)}^2{f}^{\prime \prime }(x{)}^2{h}^3$. It changes sign exactly once, giving the pointwise optimal kernel bandwidthPositivity of $f(x)$ is needed for this positive interior optimum. The printed condition $f^{\prime \prime }(x)\ne 0$ alone does not ensure it. For instance, $f(x)=x^2\varphi (x)$ is a normalized bounded probability density function with bounded continuous square-integrable second derivative, but $f(0)=0$ and $f^{\prime \prime }(0)=2\varphi (0)>0$. At this point the displayed leading variance vanishes and the two-term AMSE has no positive interior minimizer; finer variance terms are needed to determine an appropriate bandwidth. The formal formula there gives zero, which does not satisfy the bandwidth assumptions.

For integrated error, the same expansion holds in $L^2$: translation continuity of $f^{\prime \prime }\in L^2$ applied to the integral remainder givesIndeed Minkowski's integral inequality bounds the norm of the difference, divided by $h^2$, by the integral of $u^{2}K(u){\int }_0^1(1-s)\Vert f^{\prime \prime }(\cdot -shu)-f^{\prime \prime }{\Vert }_{2}dsdu$; each translated difference tends to zero and is bounded by $2\Vert f^{\prime \prime }{\Vert }_2$. This proves the claimed integrated bias expansion without assuming a uniform pointwise remainder over the whole real line.

If $K_h(x)=h^{-1}K(x/h)$, direct integration of the variance givesThe last term is $O(n^{-1})$ because $f$ is bounded and integrable, hence square integrable, and convolution with a probability density function does not increase its $L^2$ norm. It is negligible compared with $1/(nh)$. Thus the asymptotic mean integrated squared error and its minimizer areHere $R(f^{\prime \prime })>0$: otherwise the continuous second derivative vanishes everywhere, making $f$ affine, impossible for a probability density function on the whole real line.

Now take the standard normal density $f=\varphi$. Differentiation gives ${\varphi }^{\prime \prime }(x)=(x^2-1)\varphi (x)$. Gaussian integration givesThe kernel constants cancel from the bandwidth ratio. At $x\ne \pm 1$,Put $t=x^2$. The logarithmic derivative of $e^{t/2}/(t-1{)}^2$ is $1/2-2/(t-1)$. On $0\le t<1$ the function increases, giving its minimum at $t=0$, with value one. On $t>1$ it decreases up to $t=5$ and then increases, giving its minimum $e^{5/2}/16<1$. Thus the global minimizers are $x=\pm \sqrt{5}$, and the normal-density local-to-global bandwidth ratio isThe ratio diverges at the two inflection points $\pm 1$, where the second-order pointwise bias approximation vanishes and needs a higher-order replacement.

For a second-order kernel density estimator, if $f(x)>0$ and $f^{\prime \prime }(x)\ne 0$, the leading pointwise asymptotic mean squared error is $R(K)f(x)/(nh)+{\mu }_2(K{)}^2{f}^{\prime \prime }(x{)}^2{h}^4/4$. Differentiation gives the displayed interior optimum. At a zero of $f$, the leading variance term vanishes and this two-term approximation has no positive interior minimizer; at a zero of $f^{\prime \prime }$, a higher-order bias expansion is needed.