Backlog-aware ALOHA with arrival-adjusted attempt probabilities ($p_b=\min \{1,(1-\eta )/b\}$)

In infinite-population slotted ALOHA, suppose new arrivals form an independent Poisson variable of mean $\eta$ per slot and attempt immediately. At backlog $b\ge 1$, let old packets attempt independently with probability $p_b$. Their total attempted load tends to $1-\eta$, so the total offered attempts tend to one and the success probability tends to $e^{-1}$. For $0<\eta <e^{-1}$ the backlog has strictly negative drift outside a finite set, and Foster theorem proves a positive recurrent Markov chain. This mathematical benchmark requires exact backlog information; a practical feedback estimate needs its own analysis.

// Target: probability-and-statistics.bigb