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Brown's double exponential smoothing (at​=2st(1)​−st(2)​,bt​=1−αα​(st(1)​−st(2)​))

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Time series Exponential smoothing Double exponential smoothing
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For 0<α<1, set st(1)​=αXt​+(1−α)st−1(1)​ and st(2)​=αst(1)​+(1−α)st−1(2)​. Use the displayed corrected level and slope, then forecast at​+hbt​. For an exact linear trend after initialization transients, the first and second smooths have lags (1−α)/α and twice that lag; their difference recovers the slope and the corrected level removes the lag. This is distinct from Holt's linear trend method.

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  • Double exponential smoothing
  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2002 / iii / Paper 40 / 5 / Solution

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