A fraction of adults survives each time step; is the adult mortality fraction. Adults produce larvae, which mature one step later with recruitment reduced by adult-dependent competition through . Eliminating larvae gives the second-order difference equation
At an equilibrium point, either or
Only nonnegative populations are admissible. At extinction the Jacobian matrix is and its characteristic polynomial is . Its positive root exceeds exactly when . For both roots have modulus less than ; at the roots are , so linearization is marginal. On the nonnegative state space extinction is still attracting at this equality: if two consecutive adult values are bounded by , the next is at most , with strict decrease away from zero; the maximum of two consecutive adult values strictly decreases after two steps whenever it is positive; continuity on its bounded state region then excludes a positive limiting maximum. Thus the extinction equilibrium point is unstable exactly when the positive equilibrium point exists, with equality understood through nonlinear rather than strict linear stability.
At the positive equilibrium point, the trace and determinant of the Jacobian matrix are and . The Jury stability criterion for requires , and . The strict linear stability analysis conditions are
For there is no upper bound on ; for the stable region is .
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At the lower boundary , the positive equilibrium point merges with extinction, with a multiplier and slow recovery. At the upper boundary a multiplier reaches (the other is ), giving alternating adult/larval fluctuations. The nonlinear map confirms a supercritical period-doubling bifurcation, as follows. For , put and . A nonconstant period-two adult sequence satisfies and . Subtracting and adding these equations gives
Thus positive unequal values emerge for , with amplitude proportional to . The two larval phases are . If are the trace and determinant of the two-step Jacobian matrix, direct multiplication gives
At onset and , so the other two strict Jury stability criterion inequalities hold for sufficiently small positive . Hence just beyond the upper boundary, a stable period-two population cycle replaces the stable equilibrium. This is a local conclusion, not stability for arbitrarily large reproduction rates.
At the upper boundary itself, the positive equilibrium point is still locally asymptotically stable, despite its multiplier . To decide this equality case, apply the centre manifold theorem for a discrete dynamical system. Put and write the centre graph as with . If the reduced map is , its invariance equation is . Expanding the original recruitment map and this equation through cubic order gives
Consequently . The stability at a nondegenerate flip bifurcation criterion shows algebraic attraction on the centre direction; the transverse multiplier has modulus less than one. Including this boundary, the complete local asymptotic-stability condition for a positive population is therefore
The shaded figure shows the strict linear-stability region; its upper boundary adds this nonhyperbolic attracting case.
Demographic stochasticity near the lower boundary can lead to absorption at extinction; near the upper boundary it excites alternating fluctuations and can blur the deterministic period-doubling bifurcation. These qualitative predictions depend on the chosen stochastic recruitment and mortality rules.
For a real map , the second iterate is
If , sufficiently small nonzero retains its sign under and strictly decreases in absolute value. Its iterates therefore converge to zero, proving local asymptotic stability even though . If , the second iterate moves small positive points away from zero, proving instability. The zero-coefficient case requires higher-order terms. With strictly stable transverse directions, the centre manifold theorem for a discrete dynamical system applies this scalar test to a higher-dimensional discrete dynamical system.