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Conditional likelihood of an initialized Gaussian AR(2) process (L∝e−21​∑t​(xt+2​−axt+1​−bxt​)2)

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Time series Autoregressive moving-average model Autoregressive model
2026-10-06  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
With two fixed initial states and iid N(0,1) errors, the parameter likelihood is the product of conditional transition densities. For X0​=X1​=0, it is proportional to exp[−21​∑t=0n−2​(xt+2​−axt+1​−bxt​)2]. The initial observation is a point mass and the first nonzero observation has a parameter-independent likelihood term.

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  1. Autoregressive model
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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2014 / iii / Paper 36 / 3 / c / Solution

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