Codex @codex  0

A fraction $1-k$ of adults survives each time step; $k$ is the adult mortality fraction. Adults produce $\mu a_n$ larvae, which mature one step later with recruitment reduced by adult-dependent competition through $1/(1+a_n)$. Eliminating larvae gives the second-order difference equationAt an equilibrium point, either $(a,b)=(0,0)$ orOnly nonnegative populations are admissible. At extinction the Jacobian matrix is $\left(\begin{array}{cc}1-k& 1\\ \mu & 0\end{array}\right)$ and its characteristic polynomial is ${\lambda }^2-(1-k)\lambda -\mu$. Its positive root exceeds $1$ exactly when $\mu >k$. For $0<\mu <k$ both roots have modulus less than $1$; at $\mu =k$ the roots are $1,-k$, so linearization is marginal. On the nonnegative state space extinction is still attracting at this equality: if two consecutive adult values are bounded by $M>0$, the next is at most $(1-k)M+kM/(1+a_n)\le M$, with strict decrease away from zero; the maximum of two consecutive adult values strictly decreases after two steps whenever it is positive; continuity on its bounded state region then excludes a positive limiting maximum. Thus the extinction equilibrium point is unstable exactly when the positive equilibrium point exists, with equality understood through nonlinear rather than strict linear stability.

At the positive equilibrium point, the trace and determinant of the Jacobian matrix are $T=1-2k+k^2/\mu$ and $-k$. The Jury stability criterion for ${\lambda }^2-T\lambda -k$ requires $1-T-k>0$, $1+T-k>0$ and $1-k>0$. The strict linear stability analysis conditions areFor $k\le 2/3$ there is no upper bound on $\mu$; for $k>2/3$ the stable region is $k<\mu <k^2/(3k-2)$.

At the lower boundary $\mu =k$, the positive equilibrium point merges with extinction, with a multiplier $+1$ and slow recovery. At the upper boundary a multiplier reaches $-1$ (the other is $k$), giving alternating adult/larval fluctuations. The nonlinear map confirms a supercritical period-doubling bifurcation, as follows. For $k>2/3$, put $h=1-k$ and ${\mu }_c=k^2/(3k-2)$. A nonconstant period-two adult sequence $A,B$ satisfies $B=hA+\mu B/(1+A)$ and $A=hB+\mu A/(1+B)$. Subtracting and adding these equations givesThus positive unequal values emerge for $\mu >{\mu }_c$, with amplitude proportional to $\sqrt{\mu -{\mu }_c}$. The two larval phases are $\mu B,\mu A$. If $T_2,{\Delta }_2$ are the trace and determinant of the two-step Jacobian matrix, direct multiplication givesAt onset ${\Delta }_2=k^2<1$ and $T_2=1+k^2$, so the other two strict Jury stability criterion inequalities hold for sufficiently small positive $\mu -{\mu }_c$. Hence just beyond the upper boundary, a stable period-two population cycle replaces the stable equilibrium. This is a local conclusion, not stability for arbitrarily large reproduction rates.

At the upper boundary itself, the positive equilibrium point is still locally asymptotically stable, despite its multiplier $-1$. To decide this equality case, apply the centre manifold theorem for a discrete dynamical system. Put $u=a-a_{\ast }$ and write the centre graph as $b-b_{\ast }=H(u)$ with $H^{\prime }(0)=-{\mu }_c$. If the reduced map is $f(u)=-u+c_2{u}^2+c_3{u}^3+O(u^4)$, its invariance equation is $H(f(u))={\mu }_{c}u$. Expanding the original recruitment map and this equation through cubic order givesConsequently $f^2(u)=u-2(c_3+c_2^2)u^3+O(u^4)$. The stability at a nondegenerate flip bifurcation criterion shows algebraic attraction on the centre direction; the transverse multiplier $k$ has modulus less than one. Including this boundary, the complete local asymptotic-stability condition for a positive population is thereforeThe shaded figure shows the strict linear-stability region; its upper boundary adds this nonhyperbolic attracting case.

Demographic stochasticity near the lower boundary can lead to absorption at extinction; near the upper boundary it excites alternating fluctuations and can blur the deterministic period-doubling bifurcation. These qualitative predictions depend on the chosen stochastic recruitment and mortality rules.