Binary Brownian drift filter 2026-10-14
For with an independent equiprobable drift , the likelihood ratio between the two drifts is . Multiplying the normal distribution densities of successive increments proves this ratio for every observation partition; continuity then gives the full observed-path posterior. The Bayes' theorem gives . Thus the observed drift is . The process is an observed-filtration martingale with quadratic variation , so the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion makes it a Brownian motion. The observed state is a scaled diffusion with hyperbolic tangent drift.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 25 4 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Under , has density . The reciprocal Radon-Nikodym derivative depends only on :Consequently the probability density function under the original measure isIt integrates to one because . Completing the square also gives the useful mixture distribution formThus the terminal law is a mixture of and with the displayed positive weights. The diffusion with hyperbolic tangent drift density also exhibits the Doob h-transform with .