Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 48 4 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
An instantaneous forward rate curve determines the unit-face-value zero-coupon bond through and . Integrating in maturity givesThe diagonal is the short rate, , and the continuous-time bank account has when . Therefore the discounted bond price martingale has valueUnder the risk-neutral measure of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model, sufficiently integrable discounted bond prices are true martingales; without that integrability their stochastic dynamics initially establish a local martingale.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 39 6 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
An interest rate model must describe a whole term structure of interest rates, not just one future scalar rate. Let be the time- price of a unit zero-coupon bond maturing at . For a sufficiently regular maturity curve, define the instantaneous forward rate and short rate bySince , integration givesHere is the continuous-time bank account. Thus modelling the two-parameter field determines both the bonds and the discounting account. A Gaussian random field means that every finite collection of its values is jointly Gaussian; merely making each individual forward rate normally distributed is insufficient.
A useful arbitrage-free construction works under a money-market risk-neutral measure . Take independent Brownian motions , deterministic coefficient sequences , and a deterministic initial forward curve . With the coefficients viewed as vectors in a separable Hilbert space , writeFor infinitely many factors, the last term means the limit of , not an assumption that the infinite vector of Brownian motions is itself -valued. Require and the maturity/time regularity needed for stochastic integration and exchange of integrals. Deterministic drift and volatility make this a Gaussian forward-rate field.
The field covariance is determined byFor every finite set of maturities, must be positive semidefinite. A one-factor model has rank-one instantaneous covariance, while additional or infinitely many factors permit richer correlations along the yield curve. Equivalently one can drive the curve with a maturity-correlated Brownian field satisfying . A Brownian sheet gives the exampleMultiplication by deterministic maturity-dependent amplitudes, or deterministic increasing changes of the two sheet coordinates, gives further Gaussian covariance structures. A covariance specification alone is not sufficient: the forward drift must also obey absence of arbitrage.
To derive that drift restriction, putDifferentiate the moving lower endpoint in to obtainThe Itô formula therefore givesDiscounted bond prices must be martingales under . Their drift vanishes precisely when . Differentiating in maturity gives the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model restrictionFor scalar amplitudes multiplying a field with covariance kernel , this becomes . The extra maturity correlation factor cannot in general be dropped.
The complete Gaussian specification is consequentlyIts mean and covariance follow immediately from deterministic integration and the Itô isometry. The initial yield curve is an input, so fitting initial bond prices requires choosing rather than changing a few scalar parameters. With the displayed drift, the discounted bond obeysOn finite horizons, deterministic square-integrable bond volatility gives an expectation-one stochastic exponential, hence a true discounted bond price martingale. This supplies an arbitrage-free pricing model for admissible portfolios in any finite collection of these bonds. Under a physical measure, a market price of risk vector changes the drift: if , then the physical forward drift is . Historical mean changes must therefore not be inserted in place of the risk-neutral drift restriction. Gaussianity under both measures additionally requires suitable deterministic drift changes; state-dependent risk premiums need not preserve Gaussianity under the physical measure.
There is also a useful general consistency test for a proposed Gaussian field beyond this independent-increment construction. DefineIn the filtration generated by a Gaussian field, conditional distributions of such linear functionals are Gaussian. For , the martingale requirement is therefore exactlyThis follows by taking the conditional exponential moment and equating it to . It constrains both the deterministic mean and the covariance-induced conditional mean. Matching only unconditional discounted bond expectations does not suffice. For the Brownian-field construction, the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model restriction realizes this consistency condition through local drift cancellation.
Gaussian structure makes risk-neutral pricing particularly tractable. As a finite-factor example, take the Vasicek model under :Solving this Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process gives, for ,Hence, with and , the conditional Gaussian integral hasThe exponential moment identity for a normal variable now gives the zero-coupon bond price , whereThis outlines the derivation of the familiar exponential-affine form without assuming a deterministic future discount rate. More general forward-field models need not reduce to a finite-dimensional Markov short-rate process.
For another application, a call at time on a unit maturity- bond, with and strike , is priced under the T-forward measure, using as numéraire. The bond-price ratio is a martingale under that measure and has deterministic volatility . It is consequently lognormal, with integrated log-varianceIntegrating the lognormal payoff gives the Gaussian bond-option formulaAt use . The same idea prices other suitable Gaussian-rate derivatives through forward measures and normal exponential moments.
The attractions are exact initial-curve fitting, explicit covariance control across maturities, and tractable bond and option prices. The limitations are also structural: Gaussian short rates and instantaneous forward rates generally can be negative; finite-factor specifications restrict maturity correlations; and deterministic volatilities cannot reproduce arbitrary stochastic changes in rate dispersion. An infinite-factor model allows richer covariance but typically leaves risks that cannot be spanned by finitely many traded bonds. Thus Gaussianity is a useful modelling choice, not by itself a guarantee of positivity, market completeness, or absence of arbitrage.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 211 2 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use the Radon-Nikodym derivative at and the discounted bond price martingale from part (b):For the variance, put and , for . The ratio has, by the Itô formula,Under the T-forward measure , , so its drift becomes . Since ,The first two terms are deterministic; the Itô isometry supplies the variance of the last. The two requested answers areIn fact the terminal zero-coupon bond price has a log-normal distribution under this forward measure, with the deterministic negative half-variance correction ensuring the displayed mean.