Overfitting Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Overfitting occurs when further adaptation improves training error while degrading performance on new data, for example by fitting incidental disturbances instead of a stable regression function. A gap between training error and test error alone does not prove that a simpler rule would generalize better. Compare candidates using cross-validation or a validation set; reserve the test set for assessment. Regularization and early stopping can limit adaptation. [ref]
https://web.stanford.edu/~hastie/ISLR2/Slides/Ch2_Statistical_Learning.pdf. ISLR chapter 2 slides, assessing model accuracy
Evaluate the training error example at , , none coinciding with a training input. The mean squared discrepancy is , , and for degrees 1, 2, and 7. Thus degree 7 improves training error but worsens recovery of the target relative to degree 2. Degree 1 misses the target's curvature, illustrating underfitting.
These are errors against a known noiseless target, not test errors against fresh noisy responses. In a separate noiseless control, degrees 2 and 7 both recover this target exactly; their numerical held-out errors are approximately and . The fixed-disturbance simulation illustrates a mechanism, not a universal numerical benchmark or a claim that higher polynomial degree always harms generalization.
Noisy polynomial fitting, training-only degree selection, and separate noiseless-target evaluation
. Details. The regularization parameter is the stopping index : increasing reduces the approximation bias but amplifies noise. Equivalently one may use the parameter , which tends to zero as .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 iii Paper 218 4 b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Training minimizes the empirical categorical cross-entropy lossby stochastic gradient descent. The independent validation set monitors generalization, while the small fixed number of epochs limits how long the network can fit training noise; using validation loss for early stopping would make this safeguard explicit. A forward pass computes all layer activations, class probabilities, and the mini-batch loss. There are training mini-batches per epoch and hence training forward passes, in addition to validation evaluation after each epoch.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2026 iii Paper 218 5 d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
The dashed curve is training accuracy: it continues to rise as optimization adapts to the training observations. The solid curve is testing accuracy: it peaks near 10 epochs and then declines. The widening gap is overfitting.
A sensible choice is about 10 epochs, selected by early stopping at the maximum validation accuracy. In a proper analysis, a validation set rather than the final test set should choose this epoch. Early stopping is an implicit regularization method because it limits how far the parameters can adapt to training-specific noise.
