Edward Norton Lorenz showed how a deterministic low-dimensional model of convection can produce bounded, nonperiodic evolution with strong sensitivity to its initial state. His 1963 paper became a central example of chaos: the equations determine a trajectory, while finite initial precision can still limit long-time prediction.
The model retains three coupled variables from a simplified convection description rather than attempting to simulate the entire atmosphere. This distinction matters: the result demonstrates a mechanism of unpredictability without making every weather pattern random or every forecast impossible.[ref]
Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow by Edward Norton Lorenz. 1963 convection model, numerical trajectories and predictability discussion
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Edward Norton Lorenz was an American mathematician and meteorologist best known for his pioneering work in chaos theory and for developing the concept of the "butterfly effect." Born on May 23, 1917, and passing away on April 16, 2008, Lorenz's research revolved around how small changes in initial conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes in complex systems, particularly in weather forecasting.