Use the positive exponential Brownian martingale
The strong law for Brownian motion, , makes its exponent tend to and hence . If , then . Part (b) gives, for ,
Thus the maximum is exponentially distributed with rate :
There is no atom at zero, by letting in the tail. This is the infinite-horizon crossing probability for Brownian motion with negative drift.
The price process is a geometric Brownian motion with
Put
and define the equivalent measure on by the exponential Brownian martingale
The Cameron-Martin-Girsanov theorem says that is Brownian motion under . Therefore
so is a -martingale. This is the unique equivalent martingale measure, since cancellation of the single Brownian risk forces the displayed drift shift.
By risk-neutral valuation,
Writing with gives
For , the increment is independent of and is . Hence
Also , so is the exponential Brownian martingale.
For , write . The increment is independent of and is normally distributed with variance . Its moment generating function gives
The process is integrable for every real , so it is the exponential Brownian martingale.
By the Reflection invariance of Brownian motion, is Brownian motion, and the first time reaches is the first time reaches . Part b therefore gives
Now is the exponential Brownian martingale. At , the identity gives , so . The nonnegative stopped martingale therefore loses no mass at infinity and is uniformly integrable. The optional sampling theorem at any stopping time gives
Apply Itô formula to . Its semimartingale decomposition is
The second term is a continuous finite-variation process. Since is assumed to be a local martingale, uniqueness of the semimartingale decomposition makes this term identically zero. Both and are nonzero, so the quadratic variation of is .
The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion now says that is a Brownian motion. Consequently
is a constant multiple of an exponential Brownian martingale. It is therefore a true martingale for every .