Extreme value theory 2026-10-05
Extreme value theory studies limiting probability distributions of normalized sample maxima and related extremes. The standard limits for maxima include the Fréchet distribution, negative Weibull distribution, and Gumbel distribution.
Fréchet distribution 2026-10-05
For , the standard Fréchet distribution has distribution function for and zero for . Its maximum domain of attraction consists of distribution functions with an infinite right endpoint of a distribution and a survival function with regular variation of index .
For independent and identically distributed random variables with distribution function , let be the sample maximum. In extreme value theory, belongs to the maximum domain of attraction of a nondegenerate distribution function when there exist and such that
at every continuity point of . Thus the normalized sample maxima have convergence in distribution to .
A positive measurable function has regular variation at infinity with index , written , if
The case defines a slowly varying function; equivalently a regularly varying function is with a slowly varying function.
Write for the survival function and for the right endpoint of a distribution. For , use the following standard extreme value theory normalization conventions:
They are respectively the Fréchet distribution, the negative Weibull distribution, and the Gumbel distribution for maxima. The negative Weibull distribution is supported to the left of its finite endpoint; it is not the usual positive Weibull distribution.
The necessary and sufficient maximum domain of attraction criteria are:
  • For the Fréchet distribution,
    Equivalently for every .
  • For the negative Weibull distribution,
    Equivalently as , for every .
  • For the Gumbel distribution,
    Here is a Gumbel auxiliary function, and can be finite or infinite. For each fixed , the shifted argument lies below eventually. This exponential tail-ratio condition, rather than regular variation with a fixed finite index, characterizes this case.
For the corresponding sufficient hazard function conditions, assume is absolutely continuous near , its survival function tends to zero there, and its probability density function is positive there. Write . The Von Mises conditions for extreme values give
The last condition additionally assumes that the reciprocal hazard function is continuously differentiable near the endpoint. It concerns the derivative of the reciprocal hazard function, not the derivative of the hazard function itself. Equivalently, when is differentiable, it is .
To see the connection, taking an integral of the hazard function gives
The first two limits make the logarithmic tail ratios over multiplicative or endpoint-distance intervals tend to or , giving the required regular variation. For the Gumbel distribution, set . The derivative condition makes uniformly on bounded -intervals, so
The endpoint assumptions ensure these shifts are admissible: at an infinite endpoint , and at a finite endpoint . These are sufficient smooth-tail conditions; the tail-ratio characterizations above are necessary and sufficient without differentiability assumptions. For a source using the same reciprocal-hazard convention, see Smith and Weissman's university lecture notes, equations (2.18)–(2.24).
For the Gamma distribution with integer shape and rate one, let . The base case is , and integration by parts gives
Induction proves
This survival function has the asymptotic form ; for the relation is exact. Put . For every fixed real , and . The proposed centering satisfies
so
Only the highest-degree term contributes to the limit, with the same reasoning covering . The Taylor expansion now gives
because . Therefore the Gumbel limit for gamma maxima is
Equivalently, has convergence in distribution to the standard Gumbel distribution, with scale .
For an absolutely continuous distribution function with positive probability density function near its right endpoint of a distribution, write for its hazard function. The limits at an infinite endpoint or at a finite endpoint imply attraction to the Fréchet distribution or negative Weibull distribution, respectively. A continuously differentiable reciprocal hazard function with implies attraction to the Gumbel distribution, provided the survival function tends to zero at the endpoint.