Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2020 ii Paper 3 28J ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-29
Let be the likelihood function. Since the prior distribution is , the posterior density has the formwhere is the normalizing constant.
Choose and use the Gaussian autoregressive proposal reversible with respect to a standard normal distributionThuswhose covariance matrix is the required . Reversibility with respect to the standard normal distribution sayssoThe Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probability therefore reduces toThis is the Preconditioned Crank–Nicolson algorithm with proposal scale .
Preconditioned Crank–Nicolson algorithm Created 2026-09-29 Updated 2026-10-03
The preconditioned Crank–Nicolson algorithm, or pCN algorithm, uses a Gaussian autoregressive proposal reversible with respect to a standard normal distribution in a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. When the target density is a likelihood times the proposal's invariant Gaussian prior density, the Gaussian factors cancel from the Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probability, leaving the likelihood ratio.