Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 42 1 iii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Under the unrestricted model, insert the maximum-likelihood estimates . Under the diagonal-covariance restriction, the quadratic form is minimized over the mean at , and the remaining objective separates over the diagonal entries:Differentiating in gives ; the derivative changes from negative to positive there. Put . The fitted trace term is under either model, since . Consequently the likelihood-ratio test statistic is determined byThis is the Gaussian diagonal-covariance likelihood-ratio test. Reject for sufficiently small , equivalently for large . Under the regular large-sample calibration, Wilks theorem gives , since diagonality removes that many free covariance parameters. The exact critical constant can instead be obtained from the null distribution at the actual sample size.
For , write the sample correlation coefficient as . Then , so the likelihood-ratio test rejects for large , not merely for large positive . Under the null, the two variables have a bivariate normal distribution and are independent, and the exact test isIndeed, condition on the centered first-variable observation vector. Decompose the second centered Gaussian vector into its component along that direction and the -dimensional orthogonal complement. Their squared lengths give independent and variables. Their ratio shows that has Student's t-distribution with statistical degrees of freedom.