Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 47 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Transform each observation to . If has full row rank , the transformed sample is multivariate normal with mean and positive-definite covariance matrix . Its sample mean is and its unbiased sample covariance matrix is . The Hotelling test of linear hypotheses therefore usesHere is required. Reject for a large scaled statistic using the relevant upper F-distribution quantile. If the rows of are dependent, choose a basis for their row space, use that basis as the contrast matrix, and replace by its rank . The null hypothesis is unchanged, but redundant contrasts must not be treated as independent dimensions. Rank zero gives no restrictions and hence no nontrivial test.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 47 1 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
At equal spacing , the adjacent increments of an affine mean profile are all . Their differences are therefore zero. Define the matrix whose row associated with the interior time has coefficients in columns . ThenConversely these equations make all adjacent first differences equal, so is affine in , equivalently affine in the equally spaced times. Thus the restriction is exactly , not just a necessary condition. Its null space has basis and , so has rank .
For and , the second-difference test of a linear mean profile is the Hotelling test of linear hypotheses withReject the affine-profile hypothesis when the scaled statistic exceeds its level- upper F-distribution critical value. This removes the nuisance intercept and slope without estimating them separately.
For unequal ordered distinct times, put and replace each second-difference row by the adjacent-slope contrastIts three coefficients are , and . Vanishing means all adjacent slopes agree, again giving null space and rank . Use this new in the same statistic and null distribution. For , every mean profile at distinct times is affine, so there is no lack-of-linearity restriction to test.
At equally spaced distinct times, a mean profile is affine exactly when its consecutive second differences vanish. These form independent contrasts. At unequal times, compare adjacent slopes instead: . A Hotelling test of linear hypotheses tests these restrictions jointly with unknown covariance.