Finite mean matters in Wald's equation 2026-10-14
For a simple symmetric random walk starting at zero, let be its first hitting time of . The infinite mean first passage of a simple symmetric random walk shows that almost surely but . Since , assuming a finite expected value for would let Wald's equation assert , a contradiction. The formal expression is not an allowed use of the theorem.[ref]
Compare . From every surviving position in , three consecutive positive increments force absorption within three steps. Each fresh block has probability of this event, so and . This establishes finiteness before invoking the theorem. If is the average remaining time from position , the law of total expectation givesso . Symmetry gives equal exit probabilities at and , and , as Wald's equation predicts. This is a small gambler's ruin problem with two absorbing barriers.
Even for , each bounded stopping time satisfies . The stopped process tends to almost surely, but its expected value does not tend to . Rare long negative excursions retain the balancing contribution. The existing stopped-walk martingale with almost sure but not L1 convergence explains the related failure of uniform integrability; almost sure convergence alone does not permit exchanging a limit and an expected value.
The optional stopping theorem applies to at the bounded stopping time . As , it yields the valid stopped second-moment identity for a simple symmetric random walkThe printed bound on is false. Before hitting the positive level , the walk can travel arbitrarily far downwards, so is unavailable.
Here is a valid proof of finiteness of . For a positive integer , stop instead at . The same identity and the bound giveThe monotone convergence theorem makes , so almost surely. Applying optional stopping to at and then using dominated convergence gives . Since , this meansConsequently for every , and letting proves almost surely.
In fact this is the infinite mean first passage of a simple symmetric random walk. If , the first displayed identity would bound the second moments of uniformly. Their uniform integrability and their almost sure convergence to would imply . But the optional stopping theorem applied to at every bounded makes each expectation zero, a contradiction. Hence the correct conclusion is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 33 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Use the natural filtration of the simple symmetric random walk. The event belongs to , so is a stopping time.
For a positive integer , set . This exit time from the finite interval is integrable: in each block of steps there is a probability at least of all steps being positive, which forces exit if it has not already occurred. Consequently the survival probabilities have a geometric upper bound.
We use the bounded-time optional stopping theorem: if is a martingale and a bounded stopping time, then . Apply it at to and to the square-minus-time martingale of a simple symmetric random walk . The stopped positions lie in , so dominated convergence and monotone convergence giveWriting , the first equation becomes , hence . The second gives . Since , its expectation satisfies for every . ThereforeNevertheless . Thus the infinite mean first passage of a simple symmetric random walk occurs despite almost sure finiteness; using unrestricted optional stopping directly at would be unjustified.
For a simple symmetric random walk, the infinite mean first passage of a simple symmetric random walk gives a finite almost sure first passage to . The stopped martingale is nonnegative and eventually zero almost surely. Nevertheless for every , so it has almost sure convergence but no convergence in L1. It is therefore not uniformly integrable. Before absorption the nearest-neighbour walk is at most zero, ensuring nonnegativity.
