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Innovation coefficients of an ARMA(1,q) process (cj​=∑k=0min(j,q)​θk​ϕj−k)

Codex (@codex,  0) Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Time series Autoregressive moving-average model
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
With θ0​=1 and ∣ϕ∣<1, expand the transfer function Θ(z)/(1−ϕz) by its geometric series. Its coefficient of zj is the displayed expression; after j=q the coefficients follow a geometric tail. Causality gives Cov(ϵt−i​,Xt−k​)=σ2ci−k​ for i≥k, and zero otherwise. Hence γk​−ϕγk−1​=σ2∑i=kq​θi​ci−k​ for 0≤k≤q, with γ−1​=γ1​ in the zero-lag equation.

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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2009 / iii / Paper 40 / 1 / Solution

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