Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 41 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For nontrivial positive claim sizes in the classical risk model and , the adjustment coefficient is the unique positive solutionIndeed, has , , and is strictly convex. It becomes positive near the right endpoint of the moment-generating function domain. For a finite endpoint this follows from the assumed divergence; for an infinite endpoint, for some gives an exponential lower bound on , which eventually exceeds any linear function. Convexity gives existence and uniqueness of the positive crossing and .
Put and . Substituting into the supplied survival renewal equation for a classical risk model, and using , yieldsMultiplying by gives the proper renewal-type equationThe exponential tilt of the ruin renewal kernel turns a defective kernel into a probability density function, because the tail integration identity givesThis identity follows also by integrating and applying Tonelli theorem. The tilted probability density function defines a nonarithmetic distribution, even if the claim size probability distribution itself has atoms.
Differentiate to calculate its mean:It is finite and positive because is inside the finite moment-generating function domain. Next, reversing the order of integration givesThe forcing function is directly Riemann integrable. Choose with . Markov's inequality bounds by , so is bounded by a constant times . It is continuous; on finite intervals continuity controls its Riemann sums, and the exponential envelope controls the tails. These are sufficient conditions for direct Riemann integrability.
Iterating the renewal equation by convolution gives , where is the renewal measure. The remainder after iterations is bounded on each fixed interval by a constant times the chance that a sum of positive interarrivals remains in that interval, which tends to zero. The key renewal theorem, applicable to this nonarithmetic distribution of finite mean and the directly integrable forcing, now gives the interior adjustment coefficient ruin prefactor:Both numerator and denominator are positive, so .
For the unit-rate shape-two Erlang distribution, , and . Write , so positive loading requires . Dividing the adjustment coefficient equation by its nonzero root gives . ThusThe last simplification uses ; it is the Erlang shape-two ruin prefactor. Its value depends on the premium-to-arrival ratio, which is not specified numerically.
For the final exponential representation, evaluating at zero in the survival renewal equation for a classical risk model gives . If the slower term is present, necessarily and . Comparing with the finite positive asymptotic constant just proved yieldsA smaller adjustment coefficient would make the limit zero and a larger one would make it infinite. Here the leading exponential term determines a ruin adjustment coefficient. The coefficient need not be assumed positive to identify the leading term.
The wording does not specify that is nonzero. If and , the only surviving term instead gives , and . This case is realizable: claims with an exponential distribution of rate have ultimate ruin probability . Negative would make the ultimate ruin probability negative for large , and both coefficients zero are incompatible with a nontrivial positive claim rate and mean. These observations specify the coefficient qualification needed for the usual answer.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 43 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
In the classical risk model, write the surplus aswhere is the claim-arrival Poisson process. The ruin time is . The ultimate ruin probability isThe positive root in the question is the adjustment coefficient. The Lundberg inequality and the Cramér–Lundberg approximation are, respectively,The interior adjustment coefficient ruin prefactor is finite here because lies strictly inside the finite domain of the moment-generating function; the claim-size density supplies the nonarithmetic condition for the asymptotic. Strict convexity makes its denominator positive. The approximation is an asymptotic statement, while the inequality is a bound at every nonnegative initial capital.
The inequality can also be seen directly from the exponential surplus martingale . Its expectation factor per unit time is zero in the exponent because . Apply the optional stopping theorem at , a bounded time. On , , so . Increasing proves the bound without stopping at an unbounded time.
For any nonnegative claim size, the Tonelli theorem applied to gives the exponential tail identityCombining it with the adjustment equation yieldsThe density integrates to one by the tail integral formula for moments. Thus has the equilibrium claim-size distribution, and the preceding formula says .
Under the given NBUE condition, the stochastic order comparison is at every . Apply the same exponential tail identity to both variables to obtainConsequentlyand rearrangement proves the adjustment-coefficient lower bound for NBUE claims:This uses the specified distributional comparison, not an unwarranted assumption that an arbitrary equilibrium claim law is always smaller than its original law.
For the final example, is the shape-two, rate-one gamma distribution, with , survival function , and moment-generating function for . With , the positive adjustment root satisfiesDividing out the zero root and simplifying gives . Only the smaller root is in the finite-transform interval , soThe equilibrium density and survival function areThus for every , proving that this claim law is new better than used in expectation. Finally the lower bound equals . Our exact root is larger because , equivalently . Henceverifying the requested bound for the example.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 28 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
In the classical risk model write , where the Poisson process has rate and is independent of the claim sizes. Define the ruin time and ultimate ultimate ruin probability byThe relative safety loading is , so . The adjustment coefficient is the nonzero positive solutionExistence and uniqueness follow from the secant-slope existence criterion for an adjustment coefficient. Explicitly, has derivative at zero and is strictly convex for positive claims. The assumed divergence of makes it cross zero once at a positive . When , an exponential lower bound from any positive tail event shows that . In particular is inside the finite-transform domain, not at its endpoint.
Put . Replacing in the survival renewal equation for a classical risk model yieldsBy the tail integral formula for moments, . Therefore this is the defective renewal equationThe original kernel has mass . For the exponential tilt of the ruin renewal kernel, setMultiplying by gives the required proper renewal equationTo verify that this is a probability renewal kernel, Tonelli theorem gives, for in the finite-transform domain,The adjustment coefficient equation consequently implies . Its expected value isIt is finite because is interior to the finite-transform domain and is positive because the strict convex crossing has derivative .
We quote the key renewal theorem in the following form: for a nonarithmetic distribution of positive increments with finite positive mean , and a directly Riemann integrable nonnegative function , the locally bounded solution of satisfies . It has renewal representation ; this follows by iterating the equation, since the probability that arbitrarily many positive increments have sum at most a fixed tends to zero.
Here is absolutely continuous, and hence nonarithmetic distribution, even if the original claim law has atoms. The function is continuous. Choose with . The Markov inequality gives , and hence . Continuity on compact intervals and this exponential bound make the upper Riemann sums finite with uniformly vanishing tails, proving direct Riemann integrability.
A further application of Tonelli theorem evaluates the forcing integral:All hypotheses of the key renewal theorem are now checked, so the interior adjustment coefficient ruin prefactor isThis proves the requested Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptotic, including its constant.
For the two-component hyperexponential distribution, conditioning on the chosen exponential component givesIts moment-generating function and derivative areThe moment-generating function diverges at , while the derivative of the adjustment equation at zero is negative. Strict convexity therefore places its unique positive adjustment coefficient inThe adjustment equation, divided by , becomesUsing this identity to subtract from givesThus the asymptotic constant in terms of and isThe denominator is positive on the identified domain. If desired, is the smaller root of ; the other algebraic root lies outside the positive finite-transform interval and is not an adjustment coefficient.