The ultimate survival probability satisfies . Condition on the first arrival of the Poisson process, differentiate the resulting exponentially weighted integral, and integrate the convolution derivative equation from zero. Tonelli theorem converts the claim-density convolution to the tail convolution. The kernel mass is , so this is a defective renewal equation.
In a classical risk model, before the first claim at time , available capital is . A claim of size leaves future survival probability by the Markov property. Integrating over the independent first-arrival exponential distribution and claim density gives .
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