Fourth moment 2026-10-06
The fourth moment is . Its finiteness is equivalent to square integrability of . For centered variables, dividing it by the squared variance gives kurtosis.
Gaussian scale mixture 2026-10-06
A Gaussian scale mixture is a random variable , where has a standard normal distribution and is independent of a positive random scale . Its probability density function is the average of the conditional normal densities. Random scales can produce larger kurtosis than a single normal law.
Kurtosis 2026-10-06
For finite fourth moment and positive variance, kurtosis is . The normal distribution has kurtosis . A random scale can increase kurtosis even when the conditional distribution is normal.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 37 2 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Two useful features of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity are persistent changes in conditional scale and excess unconditional kurtosis. Its time-varying conditional variance can explain volatility clustering, where large absolute returns occur in groups even when signed returns have little autocorrelation. A homoscedastic autoregressive moving-average model has a fixed innovation variance.
Also, a conditional normal distribution with a random scale is a Gaussian scale mixture. Its unconditional kurtosis can exceed , or its fourth moment can be infinite. A Gaussian autoregressive moving-average model remains jointly Gaussian and cannot reproduce this effect. In the particular lag-two ARCH process, persistence of the squared scale occurs within each parity subsequence; the two parity subsequences are independent.