Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 218 1 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
There are two defects. The mixed fit supplies a restricted maximum likelihood, whereas the ordinary fit supplies an ordinary log-likelihood, so their difference is not a likelihood-ratio test statistic. Also, lies on the boundary of ; the usual Wilks theorem does not give a null law.
A valid approach first refits the mixed model by ordinary maximum likelihood estimation, setting REML to false, and fits the same fixed effects under . For , maximizeover , and separately over with . Set .
For finite-sample calibration, use the location-scale invariant simulation test for a Gaussian variance component. With the actual fixed, simulate independent vectors , refit both models by ordinary maximum likelihood estimation to each, and calculate in exactly the same way. Under , . Translating by a vector in the column space of and multiplying by a positive scalar preserves the statistic: both maximized log-likelihoods acquire the same scale constant. Thus this simulation has the correct null law without knowing or . A conservative Monte Carlo p-value isIn the usual regular limit with increasing independent groups, a variance-component likelihood-ratio test at a boundary instead uses : for , its approximate tail probability is , and at the nonrandomized p-value is one. This approximation is not an exact guarantee for sixteen rats. Alternatively one can compare consistently defined restricted likelihoods with the same and simulate their restricted-ratio null distribution, as in the RLRsim documentation.