Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 36 6 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A Markov jump process relative to is an adapted càdlàg process with piecewise-constant paths and finitely many jumps on each bounded time interval, whose conditional future law given depends only on its current state. For a time-homogeneous process on a countable state space, write for its transition rates and . In state , the holding time is exponential of rate and the next state is with probability ; a zero rate makes the state absorbing. The generator is . Nonexplosion is included here so that the process is defined at every finite time.
Here is a finite-jump, bounded-rate form of the Kurtz fluid limit theorem. For each , let be a chain on a countable state space with jumps at rates , with in a fixed finite subset . Assume the nonnegative are uniformly bounded, admissible jumps remain in the state space, andis globally Lipschitz with constant . Suppose in probability, and let solve , . Then for every finite ,Bounded total jump rates ensure nonexplosion; the globally Lipschitz drift gives a unique global ODE solution. These explicit hypotheses suffice for the population example, without needing a more general local version of the theorem.
To prove the result, compensate the jumps of this density-dependent Markov jump process. The drift and the coordinate martingales satisfyHere is predictable quadratic variation, not the sum of realized squared jumps. The compensation identity follows because each possible increment has intensity , and its squared coordinate increment contributes per unit time. Bounded rates and jump sizes make these martingales square-integrable.
We use the Doob L2 maximal inequality in the explicit form for a scalar square-integrable martingale starting at zero. Applying it coordinatewise and setting givesSubtract the ODE integral equation. Lipschitz continuity and Gronwall's inequality yieldThe first term tends to zero in probability by hypothesis, and the second by its maximal second-moment estimate. More quantitatively, for ,This proves the stated uniform finite-horizon fluid limit.
For the cells, division replaces one cell by two and increases population by one. At population , the total rate is the sum of the identical cell rates, namelyThe state is absorbing. Set ; its jump is with rate , where on . Extending this function by zero outside makes it bounded, nonnegative and globally Lipschitz, with Lipschitz constant one. Starting from , or from when integer rounding is necessary, the limiting ODE is the logistic differential equationSeparation of variables, or differentiating , gives its solution. The logistic cell-division process therefore satisfiesHere , so the maximal martingale second moment is at most . With exact initial density , the preceding pathwise bound even gives . With integer rounding, the bound follows from and . Thus the deterministic logistic curve approximates the density with fluctuations of order on fixed time intervals. The convergence statement is on finite horizons; it does not interchange the limits and .