Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 37 4 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Choose a proposal probability density function positive wherever is nonzero, up to null sets, and draw independent and identically distributed random variables from . The ordinary importance sampling estimator isThe support condition for importance sampling and absolute integrability give , so this is an unbiased estimator. Its variance, possibly infinite, isLet . If , the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality yieldsEquality holds for proportional to . Thus the minimum-variance importance distribution and the minimum variance areFor a constant-sign integrand this is zero variance. If , the integrand vanishes almost everywhere and the zero estimator already has zero variance. Requiring the proposal to cover all of the target's support, including where , can exclude ; in that stricter class, approaches the same infimum as . This distinguishes coverage of the integral from coverage of every target event.