For a proper continuous event time, the survival function is . The assumed invertibility of the cumulative hazard function gives, for ,
Therefore
This is the cumulative hazard probability transformation; it applies also conditionally on a subject's covariates, using that subject's correctly specified cumulative hazard function.
The fitted transformed times are Cox–Snell residuals. They retain their event/right censoring indicators, so a right-censored residual represents an exponential observation known only to exceed its displayed value. Under the fitted model and independent right censoring, calculate the Kaplan–Meier estimator of residual survival and compare it with , or calculate the residual Nelson–Aalen estimator and compare its cumulative hazard with the diagonal . Systematic departures reveal model inadequacy; sparse extreme residual risk sets and parameter estimation require caution. Treating all censored residuals as observed event times would invalidate this diagnostic.
Without right censoring, the residual mean should be approximately one. With right censoring, use the modified Cox–Snell residual
For a true unit-rate exponential distribution, the memoryless property gives . Thus an event keeps its known transformed time, while a censored observation is replaced by the conditional expected event time. Under independent right censoring, iterated expectation makes the mean of these adjusted values one when the true hazards are used, and approximately one when fitted hazards are used. These mean-imputed values do not themselves have an exponential distribution, so the survival-curve diagnostic should still use the original censored residual dataset. Moreover fitting equations can force the adjusted sample mean to one, making its mean alone a weak diagnostic.
For the proposed mixture of a finite right censoring time and no right censoring, and
Consequently
When right censoring has positive probability this choice is unique; if , no correction is needed and any has the same effect. Its independence from is the content of exponential memorylessness: the expected extra lifetime after any right censoring time is one. Conditioning on an arbitrary independent right censoring time proves the same correction beyond this special two-point mixture.
Put and , so and . Its expectation is not generally one and depends on censoring. Under independent censoring, condition on : the exponential distribution gives
Writing for the observed event indicator, it follows that . The exponential mean imputation under independent censoring therefore gives a modified Cox–Snell residual with known mean:
On censoring, the added one is the expected remaining transformed lifetime, by memorylessness of the exponential distribution. This gives a mean-one variable, not necessarily another exponential variable. Equivalently, is a martingale residual with mean zero. Independent censoring, or its appropriate conditional version, is essential for these identities; arbitrary informative censoring does not justify the correction.
Fit a model using the relevant covariates, calculate , and plot these martingale residuals against a candidate explanatory variable or against an included variable's value. A smooth systematic trend away from zero can indicate an omitted effect or an unsuitable functional form, such as a nonlinear age effect. After fitting an appropriate effect, the residual trend should diminish. The equivalent plot of has mean-one reference rather than zero.