On , observe only . Before and at the observed lifetime, the natural filtration cannot distinguish any two surviving outcomes. The predictable sigma-algebra on positive times therefore consists exactly of sets whose trace on is for a Borel set , and whose trace on is arbitrary product-Borel. To prove sufficiency, is predictable because is left-continuous and adapted; on , insert a rational with and use the predictable rectangles .
Wald's equation Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Wald's equation turns a random sum into a product of two expected values: the average contribution per step and the average number of steps. Its surprising feature is that the number of steps may depend on what has already happened. A procedure can stop on its first successful Bernoulli trial, for example, while the identity still accounts for its total cost. The crucial restriction is that the decision to take the next step cannot use that step's unobserved outcome.
Let be real independent and identically distributed random variables with , let , and put and . Suppose is a nonnegative integer-valued stopping time for the natural filtration , with . Then is an integrable random variable andThese hypotheses allow statistical dependence between and the increments; they do not allow access to future increments. The finite-expected value requirement is stronger than stopping almost surely.[ref]
For the proof idea, count step only on . This event is determined by the first observations, so its indicator function is independent of . The Proof of Wald's equation by stopping indicators combines this observation with the tail-sum formula for expectation. The same calculation with gives , which justifies interchanging the expected value and the infinite series. This is why the result survives a data-dependent end point without assuming an independent count.
The identity is useful in randomized algorithms and repeated sampling: one can translate an average amount of work into an average number of attempts, or conversely, without first finding the full probability distribution of the total. The examples below separate a permissible stopping rule from a rule that peeks ahead and from a valid rule whose average waiting time is infinite.