Poisson-gamma mixture 2026-09-24
If and has a gamma distribution, then has a negative binomial distribution. For gamma shape and scale ,
Poisson mixture Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-07
A model with for a nonnegative random intensity. Conditional expectation and total variance give and , explaining overdispersion. A Poisson-gamma mixture gives the negative binomial distribution.
Posterior coin count after exactly one head 2026-10-07
Let have the positive-integer geometric distribution with success parameter , and conditionally toss independent coins with head probability . Exactly one head has conditional probability . Combining this with the prior by Bayes theorem gives the displayed posterior with ; its normalization uses . For , the posterior is . It is also a shifted negative binomial distribution, with equal in law to the number of failures before two successes of probability .