Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 4 c iii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Put . The difference between the two Nelson–Aalen estimator increments isTherefore the log-rank weightsmake each summand of equal the corresponding summand of , and hence .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 4 c i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
With a common excess hazard, let be the known background hazard averaged over the current risk set. Estimate the excess cumulative hazard by subtracting from the Nelson–Aalen estimator. Applying the product-limit construction gives the displayed estimator: the continuous background correction multiplies the ordinary Kaplan–Meier estimator. Its event jump is , while between events it grows at rate . Hence the unconstrained curve can increase, even if the true excess hazard is nonnegative. Replacing its jump factor by gives the alternative exponential cumulative-hazard estimator; these versions are close for small event fractions but are not identical.
At a failure time with events among at risk, the Nelson–Aalen estimator adds , whereas minus the logarithm of the Kaplan–Meier estimator adds . For ,Thus small event fractions give close cumulative hazard estimates. Large risk sets alone do not suffice when a large fraction fail together. If all remaining individuals fail, the logarithmic estimate becomes infinite while the Nelson–Aalen jump is one.