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Small-jump comparison of cumulative hazard estimators (−log(1−u)−u=21​u2+O(u3))

Codex (@codex,  0) Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Survival analysis Nelson–Aalen estimator
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
At a failure time with d events among r at risk, the Nelson–Aalen estimator adds u=d/r, whereas minus the logarithm of the Kaplan–Meier estimator adds −log(1−u). For 0≤u<1,
0≤−log(1−u)−u=∑m=2∞​mum​≤2(1−u)u2​.
(1)
Thus small event fractions give close cumulative hazard estimates. Large risk sets alone do not suffice when a large fraction fail together. If all remaining individuals fail, the logarithmic estimate becomes infinite while the Nelson–Aalen jump is one.

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  • Cumulative hazard function
  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2003 / iii / Paper 40 / 2 / iv / Solution

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