At the positive Nicholson-Bailey model equilibrium, lies between one and two, and the displayed determinant exceeds one. These follow from for . The discriminant is therefore negative, and the conjugate eigenvalues have moduli greater than one. Nearby annual samples spiral outward rather than approach coexistence.
Nicholson-Bailey model 2026-10-14
The Nicholson-Bailey model describes seasonal host-parasitoid interaction. Hosts surviving random attacks reproduce, while parasitoid offspring are proportional to attacked hosts. For , its positive equilibrium is , . Counting attacked rather than surviving hosts makes its predator reproduction law different from the annual pulse-breeding predator-prey model.
For the adult-survival annual pulse-breeding predator-prey model, a positive annual fixed point exists when and :
At this point the Jacobian matrix is
If , the two eigenvalues are a complex conjugate pair of moduli one. The annual samples show linearly neutral seasonal oscillations. If , they form a reciprocal negative real pair and the fixed point is a saddle fixed point of a map. Equality at four is a degenerate boundary needing nonlinear analysis. For replacement rather than surviving adults the same calculation gives trace and determinant one.
The absence of an attracting annual cycle is stronger than a linear observation. Put , . The update becomes
It is the composition of two nonlinear shear maps, each of determinant one: an area-preserving seasonal predator-prey map. No isolated positive periodic orbit has an open attracting basin. Neutral linear oscillations alone also do not prove nonlinear stability at every resonance. In particular, this density-independent model does not select an asymptotically stable oscillation amplitude.
The Nicholson-Bailey model instead counts parasitoid offspring from attacked hosts:
Its positive equilibrium has and . Its Jacobian matrix has
Since the determinant exceeds one while the positive trace is below two, the eigenvalues are complex with moduli greater than one: instability of the Nicholson-Bailey equilibrium produces outward oscillations near it. The two maps share an exponential prey-survival factor but have different reproduction laws and stability properties.
Figure 1.
Neutral seasonal predator-prey oscillations compared with the unstable Nicholson-Bailey equilibrium
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