Coin-doubling martingale Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
For independent fair Bernoulli variables, this nonnegative martingale starts at one, doubles on every success, and becomes zero permanently on the first failure. Its expectation is always one, but it tends to zero almost surely because the probability of success forever is zero. Thus it satisfies the martingale convergence theorem while failing convergence in L1. This illustrates how rare large values obstruct uniform integrability.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 21 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For a submartingale and , let count the completed upcrossings of by time . The Doob upcrossing inequality givesFor a martingale , a useful sharper form isHere and . To see the martingale form, use a bounded predictable process that holds one unit after an observation at or below and releases it on the next observation at or above . Its gain is at least : completed trades earn at least , and any unfinished trade loses at most . Since , the bound follows. For the submartingale version, apply the same strategy to , itself a submartingale. Each purchase occurs at value zero, so its gain is at least . The complementary predictable strategy has nonnegative expected gain, bounding this strategy's expected gain by , and in particular by the stated right side.
The almost-sure martingale convergence theorem says that if , then converges almost surely to a finite, integrable random variable , with . Indeed, the Doob upcrossing inequality bounds the expected total number of upcrossings of every rational interval by . By monotone convergence, each such total count is finite almost surely; intersect these probability-one events over all rational . If the lower and upper limits of a sample path differed, some rational interval strictly between them would be crossed infinitely often. Thus each remaining path has a limit in the extended real line. The Fatou lemma givesso the limit is finite almost surely and integrable. Almost-sure convergence by itself neither preserves expectations nor supplies this uniform first-moment bound.
For the loss of expectation, let be independent variables with the fair Bernoulli distribution and setConditional on the past, survival doubles the value with probability and otherwise sets it to zero, so this is a nonnegative martingale. An infinite string of successes has probability zero. The process therefore eventually vanishes almost surely, giving yes: and almost surely are possible. Its expectations remain one at every finite time; the process is not uniformly integrable.
A nonintegrable limit is also possible for a signed martingale. Take independent withand let , . Every increment has mean zero and a finite absolute expectation, so each is integrable and is a martingale. Since , the Borel-Cantelli lemma makes only finitely many increments nonzero almost surely; hence the finite limit exists almost surely. To compute its absolute expectation, let be the event that only the th increment is nonzero. Independence givesThe infinite product is positive because its tail logarithms are bounded in absolute value by a constant times the summable series . The events are disjoint, and on , . ThereforeThus yes: a finite almost-sure martingale limit can have infinite absolute expectation, even with deterministic . This is almost-sure martingale convergence to a nonintegrable limit; the missing hypothesis is the uniform first-moment bound. For a nonnegative martingale, in contrast, the Fatou lemma would force the limit to be integrable.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 33 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Use the filtered probability space , with its half-open dyadic intervals. Complete the initial definition by putting . This is the same cell-average formula at level zero, where the only cell is .
The function is -measurable and nonnegative. Its expectation isEvery parent cell is the disjoint union of its two half-open child cells. On , the conditional expectation of is its cell average:Thus , including at . This proves that is a nonnegative martingale, specifically the dyadic density martingale. The half-open endpoints are essential to the disjoint partition for an arbitrary measure, which may have atoms.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 24 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The martingale convergence theorem says that a discrete-time martingale satisfyinghas an almost sure convergence limit , finite almost surely and in . The theorem asserts that the limit is integrable; it does not assert convergence in L1. More generally, the almost sure submartingale convergence theorem applies to a submartingale with . Uniform integrability is the additional condition that upgrades a martingale's convergence to convergence in L1.
For the requested distinction, let be independent fair Bernoulli variables and use their natural filtration. The coin-doubling martingaleis a nonnegative martingale: conditionally on , the next factor is with mean one, so . Also for every , giving the required uniform bound. The probability that all the Bernoulli variables equal one is . Therefore a zero is eventually encountered almost surely, after which stays zero. ThusThere can be no other limit, since convergence in L1 implies convergence in probability, whose limit must agree with the almost sure limit. This martingale satisfies the almost sure theorem but does not converge in .
The first entrance time is a stopping time, because . Before this time ; at entrance, the bounded increments give . Thus the stopped martingaleis a nonnegative martingale. Here the stopped process is a martingale since its increment is , whose conditional expectation given is zero.
The martingale convergence theorem states that a nonnegative martingale converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable; indeed its expectations are constant, giving the required bound in the L1 norm. Apply this theorem to . On the stopped process equals the original one at every time. HenceThe overshoot bound is why the assumption of bounded increments matters.