Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 221 3 iii Solution 2026-09-28
For fixed , conditional least squares is minimized byTherefore the remaining objective iswhose normal equation givesLetbe the conditional average treatment effect. Since is binary, conditional exchangeability impliesand . HenceThus is the overlap-weighted average treatment effect. It weights covariate strata by the overlap weight and generally differs from the ordinary ATE when treatment effects are heterogeneous and overlap varies with .