Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 ib Paper 1 19H b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-05
For a target , the bias of an integrable estimator is ; it is an unbiased estimator if this is zero at every allowed parameter value. Here has a zero-truncated Poisson distribution, , and . Write an estimator based only on as , assuming a finite expectation for every . Unbiasedness requiresAbsolute integrability at every positive parameter ensures that the power series on the left converges absolutely on every complex disc. Uniqueness of coefficients in a power series therefore gives for odd and for positive even . Conversely these values give the displayed identity, sois the unique unbiased estimator of this form. The uniqueness claim concerns nonrandomized functions of ; allowing external randomness would permit addition of independent mean-zero noise.
For this parity estimator for a zero-truncated Poisson count, usefulness depends on the loss, but under squared-error loss it performs poorly despite being an unbiased estimator. Since , andIt takes the inadmissible value with positive probability, and its variance tends to one rather than zero as . Clipping to the parameter interval gives . This has bias , butThus a simple biased estimator strictly improves its mean squared error at every parameter value; uniqueness among unbiased estimators does not make it optimal for this loss.