Past exam of the computer science course of the University of Oxford / 2015 / Computer security / 1 / d / iii / Solution

The fact that a nontrivial factor usually appears before a full return does not say that either event appears soon. Each iteration of the RSA cycling attack is inexpensive, but the number of iterations can be enormous. The multiplicative orders governing returns modulo $p$ and $q$ need not be small, and writing down a large return exponent does not provide a fast way to search the preceding iterations.

If this procedure factored arbitrary well-generated RSA cryptosystem moduli in feasible time with substantial success, it would solve the associated integer factorization problem efficiently. If it instead rapidly returned the predecessor of a ciphertext without factoring, it would solve the RSA inversion problem. Both are intended to be infeasible for appropriate parameters. Efficient integer factorization certainly breaks RSA cryptosystem security; the reverse implication for general RSA inversion problem algorithms is not known.

Thus the stated observation alone provides no serious general attack on well-generated parameters. It also does not prove a lower bound: special moduli or messages with short cycles can be weak, and the hardness claims are computational assumptions.