The one-day slaughter-inspection yield is
(1)
or 500 detections per million inspected adult cattle. The routine field detections correspond, using a stable herd size of five million, to
(2)
per adult-cattle day, or 8 detections per million adult-cattle days. Therefore the numerical one-day comparison is
(3)
The annual field rate is per cattle-year; comparing the inspection probability directly with this annual proportion would mix observation periods. Applying the random inspection-sample proportion to all 150000 slaughtered adults would predict about 75 detected cases in that slaughter cohort. These arithmetic comparisons describe detection yields, not a 62.5-fold biological disease-risk difference: a cross-sectional inspection estimates a prevalence yield, whereas daily field reporting is an ascertainment rate over animal-time.

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  4. Paper 29
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  6. 2001
  7. Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge
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