Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2003 / iii / Paper 32 / 2

Specify the trading conventions first. Let the bank account have value $R_r>0$, with $R_0=1$ and its next gross return known at time $r$. Write $B_r=1/R_r$ for the discount factor. Let $S_r$ be the ex-dividend asset-price vector, and $d_r$ the vector of cash dividends paid per unit at time $r$; set $d_r=0$ for non-dividend-paying assets. Under an equivalent martingale measure $Q$, each discounted cumulative asset gainis a martingale. Equivalently, ${\mathbb{E}}_Q[B_{r+1}(S_{r+1}+d_{r+1})\mid {\mathcal{F}}_r]=B_r{S}_r$. This is the gain-process form of risk-neutral pricing, rather than a martingale assumption on raw ex-dividend prices.

Let $X_r$ be the ${\mathcal{F}}_r$-measurable holdings after trading and distributions at time $r$. The previous holdings $X_{r-1}$ earn the next price change and dividends. Define the strategy's net cash payment and its residual portfolio wealth byA negative payment is an external infusion; a self-financing portfolio with no consumption has $D_r^X=0$. The discounted budget equation isAssume these gains and payments are integrable under $Q$, for example by bounded predictable holdings and integrable discounted asset gains. Thenis a true martingale, by conditioning the displayed one-step gains. Merely assuming a local martingale without appropriate integrability would not justify the conditional equality.

Conditioning $M_n$ on ${\mathcal{F}}_r$ proves the general multi-period dividend pricing identityFor a strategy liquidated at time $n$, $X_n=0$ and all liquidation proceeds are included in $D_n^X$. The terminal value disappears, giving exactly the requested dividend-only relation. That liquidation convention is necessary: holding one unit of the bank account with no payments would otherwise have a positive left side and zero right side.

An attainable claim $H$ paid at $n$ can be replicated by a strategy with no earlier payments and final liquidation payment $D_n^X=H$. Its time-$r$ value is thereforeTwo admissible replicating strategies have the same value by this identity, and the value is the same under every equivalent martingale measure for which the replication gains are true martingales. For unattainable claims this expectation is a possible model price, but the replication argument does not establish a unique price. With density process $Z_r={\mathbb{E}}_P[dQ/dP\mid {\mathcal{F}}_r]$, the equivalent state-price density form is $V_r=(B_r{Z}_r{)}^{-1}{\mathbb{E}}_P[B_n{Z}_{n}H\mid {\mathcal{F}}_r]$.