Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2006 / ii / Paper 2 / 26J / b

One complete cycle consists of ten stops of mean one minute and ten journeys of mean four minutes, so its mean duration is fifty minutes. Over the eight-hour shift, the elementary renewal approximation gives $480/50=9.6$ completed circuits on average.

For the end-of-shift calculation use the long-run occupation probabilities of the twenty successive phases. Each stop phase has probability $1/50$, and each travel phase probability $4/50$. Alighting stop $j$ is therefore selected with probability $1/50+4/50=1/10$, from either stopping there or travelling toward it. If that stop is the station, no further stops are passed. If it is stop $j\ge 2$, the intermediate stops are $j+1,\dots ,10$, numbering $10-j$. Thus the requested approximate mean isThe approximation treats eight hours as long compared with a cycle and ignores the initial-phase transient. Exponential holding times justify the twenty-phase Markov description; independent cycle times justify the renewal rate.