OurBigBook About$ Donate
 Sign in Sign up

Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2009 / iii / Paper 36 / 1 / e / Solution

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 36 1 e
Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
Before collecting any observations, a uniform success-chance prior distribution gives
Pr(Y=y)=(yn​)∫01​θy(1−θ)n−ydθ=(yn​)B(y+1,n−y+1)=n+11​​,y=0,…,n.
(1)
Thus the uniform-count predictive property assigns equal probability to every possible number of successes in a fixed-size batch under the prior predictive distribution. It is uniform over counts, not over all ordered binary sequences. After observing x successes in m trials, its familiar one-step posterior predictive probability is (x+1)/(m+2); the count-uniform property refers to prediction before those data are observed.

 Ancestors (11)

  1. e
  2. 1
  3. Paper 36
  4. iii
  5. 2009
  6. Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge
  7. Mathematics course of the University of Cambridge
  8. Course of the University of Cambridge
  9. University of Cambridge
  10. List of universities
  11.  Home

 View article source

 Discussion (0) New discussion

There are no discussions about this article yet.

 Articles by others on the same topic (0)

There are currently no matching articles.
  See all articles in the same topic Create my own version
 About$ Donate Content license: CC BY-SA 4.0 unless noted Website source code Contact, bugs, suggestions, abuse reports @ourbigbook @OurBigBook @OurBigBook