Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2010 / ia / Paper 2 / 10F / b / Solution

The future levels are independent of the observed maximum. Given $Y_n=z$, the first $k-1$ future levels must be at most $z$, and the $k$th must exceed $z$. Each non-overflow has probability $F(z)$ and an overflow has probability $1-F(z)$. ThereforeThis is a geometric distribution of parameter $1-F(z)$ when $F(z)<1$. Since $Y_n$ has a continuous distribution, conditioning on an exact value is understood via a regular conditional distribution, rather than division by $P(Y_n=z)=0$. The formula specifies its usual version. If $F(z)=1$ there is no possible overflow at that threshold, but such thresholds have probability zero for the random observed maximum.