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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2013 / iii / Paper 39 / 5 / b

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics course of the University of Cambridge Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 39 5
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b
A unit zero-coupon bond pays one at its maturity, so Pt​(t)=1. Monotonicity in maturity gives Pt​(t+1)≤1. Using the state-price density representation with T=t+1,
E(Zt+1​∣Ft​)=Zt​Pt​(t+1)≤Zt​.​
(1)
The process is positive and integrable, as noted in part (a), and adapted. Thus it is a supermartingale. Strictly decreasing maturity prices yield a strict one-step conditional inequality; weak decrease is already enough for the conclusion.

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