Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2014 / ia / Paper 2 / 11F (Probability)

Assume $\mathbb{E}|g(X)|<\infty$, or use nonnegative $g$ with extended expectations. Let $p_{ij}=\mathbb{P}(X=x_i,Y=y_j)$ and $p_j=\mathbb{P}(Y=y_j)$. For $p_j>0$, the discrete conditional expectation is $\mathbb{E}[g(X)\mid Y=y_j]={\sum }_{i}g(x_i)p_{ij}/p_j$. Therefore Fubini's theorem, or Tonelli theorem in the nonnegative case, gives the tower property of conditional expectation:Values of a conditional expectation on zero-probability conditioning events do not affect the sum. An unrestricted signed $g$ whose expectation is undefined is outside this assertion.

Write $M(x)=\mathbb{E}[N(x)]$. The waiting time for two increments larger than $1/2$ dominates $N(x)$ for $0\le x\le 1$ and has mean $4$, so $M$ is finite. Conditioning on the first increment, one step is always consumed; if that increment is below $x$, the remaining independent sequence has the original law. Thus first-step analysis and the tower property of conditional expectation giveThis first makes $M$ continuous and then gives $M^{\prime }=M$, with $M(0)=1$. Hence the uniform-sum crossing time below one hasAn independent explanation uses the tail-sum formula: $\mathbb{P}(N(x)>n)=\mathbb{P}(U_1+\cdots +U_n\le x)=x^n/n!$ for $x\le 1$, since this region is an $n$-dimensional simplex inside the unit cube. Summing from $n=0$ gives $e^x$. In particular the strict-crossing convention gives $N(0)=1$ almost surely and $\mathbb{E}N(1)=e$.