Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2014 / iii / Paper 38 / 5

Multiply the linear stochastic differential equation by $e^{-at}$. The Itô product rule givesThe integrand is deterministic, so the Itô integral has a centered normal distribution. Its variance, by the Itô isometry, isHenceAt $a=0$ the correct continuous-limit formula is $N(z,b^{2}t)$. A zero variance, for example when $b=0$, denotes the deterministic distribution. For $a<0$ the variance is still positive because both numerator and denominator in its quotient are negative. This is the explicit Ornstein-Uhlenbeck solution, allowing either sign of the linear drift coefficient.

Choose the market price of risk ${\lambda }_t=(\mu -r{S}_t)/\sigma$. The Girsanov theorem, with the hypotheses allowed in the question, gives an equivalent martingale measure $\mathbb{Q}$ under whichThus the stock under the risk-neutral measure is a linear Gaussian diffusion. In particular, for $\tau =T-t$ its conditional mean and standard deviation arePut $\varphi (x)=(2\pi {)}^{-1/2}{e}^{-x^2/2}$ and let $\Phi$ be the standard normal distribution function. For $N\sim N(0,1)$,since ${\int }_{-d}^{\infty }x\varphi (x)dx=\varphi (d)$. Discounting this expectation gives the call price in an arithmetic stock model with interest. A particularly convenient expression isAt maturity define $C(T,s)=(s-K{)}^{+}$. This value is nonnegative because it is a discounted expectation of a nonnegative payoff.

For $t<T$, hold ${\pi }_t=C_s(t,S_t)$ shares and hold ${\beta }_t=[C(t,S_t)-{\pi }_t{S}_t]/B_t$ units of the continuous-time bank account. The pricing function solvesThe Itô formula under the physical measure therefore givesThis proves self-financing and terminal replication, with wealth always $C(t,S_t)\ge 0$. The coefficients are locally smooth before maturity, and the strategy extends to maturity through its continuous wealth limit and the square-integrable discounted payoff representation.

To see minimality, any other nonnegative self-financing portfolio replicating the payoff has discounted wealth a nonnegative local martingale under $\mathbb{Q}$, hence a supermartingale. Its initial capital $x$ must satisfy $x\ge {\mathbb{E}}^{\mathbb{Q}}[e^{-rT}(S_T-K{)}^{+}]=C(0,S_0)$. The strategy constructed above attains equality. ThusThe additive physical diffusion may take negative stock values; the formula and nonnegative replicating wealth remain valid. Replacing it by a multiplicative Black–Scholes diffusion would give the wrong price and hedge.

Differentiate the Gaussian price with respect to $s$. The terms involving derivatives of $d$ cancel because ${\varphi }^{\prime }(d)=-d\varphi (d)$ and $s-K{e}^{-r\tau }=\nu d$. Thus the delta hedge isFor every $t<T$, $\nu >0$ and $S_t$ is finite, so $0<{\pi }_t<1$. At maturity its limiting value is the payoff derivative $1_{\{S_T>K\}}$ except at the kink, an event of probability zero under the equivalent Gaussian law. Consequently the stock holding is always nonnegative and never exceeds one. The initial drift $\mu$ does not enter this hedge; it is removed by the change to the risk-neutral measure.