Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2015 / iii / Paper 37 / 2 / e

The covariance is zero. Let ${\mathcal{F}}_t=\sigma ({\epsilon }_s:s\le t)$. The stationary noise-series representation makes $f(X_t)$ measurable with respect to ${\mathcal{F}}_t$, whereas the martingale difference sequence property gives $\mathbb{E}[X_{t+h}\mid {\mathcal{F}}_{t+h-1}]=0$. The law of total expectation therefore givesSince $\mathbb{E}{X}_{t+h}=0$, this is the required covariance. All products are integrable by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, using finite second moments of $X$ and the stipulated square integrability of $f(X_t)$.

This covariance is also zero, but symmetry is essential to the proof. Write ${\epsilon }_t={\eta }_t|{\epsilon }_t|$, where ${\eta }_t$ is an independent fair sign. The normal distribution makes that sign independent of its magnitude and of every other driving variable. Conditional on the magnitudes and all noise except this sign, changing ${\eta }_t$ flips $X_t$ and leaves $X_t^2$ unchanged. Every future conditional scale uses only squared past observations, so $X_{t+h}$ is unchanged for $h>0$.

Thus $f(X_{t+h})$ is independent of the remaining fair sign in $X_t$. Averaging that sign gives $\mathbb{E}[X_{t}f(X_{t+h})]=0$, and henceThe Cauchy-Schwarz inequality again guarantees integrability. For odd $h$, the parity decomposition of a lag-two ARCH process also gives independence directly. For even $h$, the sign symmetry of an ARCH process supplies the argument; the martingale difference sequence property alone would not justify this reversed covariance.