Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2016 / ib / Paper 4 / 9H / b

A finite irreducible Markov chain is positive recurrent. Its mean recurrence time to state $i$, starting at $i$ and counting the first positive return, is $1/{\pi }_i$. This identity comes from the long-run fraction of time spent at that state: successive return cycles each contain one visit at their start, so the fraction is the reciprocal of the mean cycle length. It remains valid for a periodic chain.

Here ${\pi }_0=2^{-k}$, henceFor $k=1$ the return is deterministically after two minutes, which checks the formula.