Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2017 / ib / Paper 2 / 20H / c / Solution

Every reachable state $i$ reaches zero deterministically in $i$ steps. For $j\in E$, choose a supported lifetime $k>j$; zero can jump to $k-1$ and then count down to $j$. Thus the chain is an irreducible Markov chain on $E$. Its positive-probability first return lengths are exactly the support of $Y_1$; all other return lengths are sums of such lengths. Their greatest common divisor is therefore one by assumption, so the chain is an aperiodic Markov chain.

The equilibrium residual-life distribution isIt is a probability distribution because the tail-sum identity gives ${\sum }_{j\ge 0}\mathbb{P}(Y_1>j)=\mathbb{E}{Y}_1=\mu$. With zero masses outside $E$,so it is a stationary distribution. This also displays why finite mean is needed for normalization.

Use the countable-state Markov chain convergence theorem: an irreducible, aperiodic, positive recurrent discrete-time chain on a countable state space has a unique stationary distribution and $P^n(i,j)\to {\pi }_j$ for every pair of states. All hypotheses were verified, including positive recurrence in part (b). Since $X_0=0$ and $\mathbb{P}(Y_1>0)=1$,The finite-state convergence theorem alone would not suffice when the lifetimes are unbounded. The gcd hypothesis is also necessary for this ordinary limit: deterministic lifetime 2, for example, produces alternating renewal probabilities rather than convergence.