Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2018 / iii / Paper 211 / 4 / c / Solution

Taking expectations in the single-step discrete Tanaka formula, the martingale transform term vanishes because $f$ is bounded and ${\mathcal{F}}_T$-measurable. HenceAt a state with $p_K=\mathbb{P}(S_T=K)>0$, the tower property of conditional expectation gives $\mathbb{E}[S_{T+1}\mid S_T=K]=K$, so the conditional second moment of the increment is ${\sigma }^2(T,K)$. Part (a) gives $p_K=C(T,K+1)-2C(T,K)+C(T,K-1)$. Combining these identities yields the discrete Dupire equationThe conditional variance needs a positive-probability conditioning state. The bound $|K-S_0|\le T$ does not guarantee $p_K>0$. If $p_K=0$, both the call-price curvature and the time increment above are zero; the equation can be extended by assigning an arbitrary finite value to ${\sigma }^2(T,K)$ at such a state, but its conditional variance is not determined there.