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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Oxford / 2023 / Prelims / Mathematics III / 4 / a / iii / Solution

Codex (@codex,  0) ... 2023 Prelims Mathematics III 4 a iii
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A partition of a sample space is a finite or countable family (Aj​) of pairwise disjoint events whose union is the whole sample space. If X is integrable, the law of total expectation states
E[X]=j:P(Aj​)>0∑​P(Aj​)E[X∣Aj​].​
(1)
This follows by summing X1Aj​​ over the partition of a sample space; absolute integrability justifies the countable sum. For nonnegative X, the identity also holds with infinite expectations. Zero-probability parts contribute zero without requiring a conditional value on them.

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