Past exam of the mathematics course of the year 1 of the natural sciences course of the University of Cambridge / 2022 / Paper 2 / 14 / d / Solution

For $n$ independent seeds the probability of at least one success is $1-(1-x{)}^n$. Requiring it to be at least $0.95$ gives $(1-x{)}^n\le 0.05$. For $0<x<1$, taking logarithms and dividing by the negative number $\log (1-x)$ reverses the inequality:The smallest permitted integer is thereforeThe ceiling function is necessary because seeds are counted discretely. If $x=0$, no finite number suffices; if $x=1$, one seed suffices. The target is interpreted as at least a ninety-five percent chance, since exact equality may not be attainable with an integer count.