Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2020 ii Paper 3 28J ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-29
Let be the likelihood function. Since the prior distribution is , the posterior density has the formwhere is the normalizing constant.
Choose and use the Gaussian autoregressive proposal reversible with respect to a standard normal distributionThuswhose covariance matrix is the required . Reversibility with respect to the standard normal distribution sayssoThe Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probability therefore reduces toThis is the Preconditioned Crank–Nicolson algorithm with proposal scale .