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For a compensated jump martingale starting at zero, with jumps bounded in absolute value by $c$ and predictable quadratic variation at most $v$ on the interval, the displayed maximal bound holds. For $0<\theta c<3$, the elementary exponential boundmakes the exponential of $\theta M$ minus that multiple of its predictable bracket a nonnegative supermartingale. Stop at the first crossing of $\eta$ and use its mean bound. Taking $\theta =\eta /(v+c\eta /3)$ yields the one-sided bound; apply the same argument to $-M$ and use the union bound for the displayed two-sided version. The elementary estimate follows from the exponential series and $k!\ge 23^{k-2}$ for $k\ge 2$. If $v=0$, the compensated martingale is constant and the crossing probability is zero; the parameter choice above is needed only for $v>0$.

With jumps $\ell /N$ at rates $N{\beta }_{\ell }(z)$, compensate each jump count by its integrated rate. The drift is $F(z)={\sum }_{\ell }\ell {\beta }_{\ell }(z)$ and the predictable quadratic variation matrix of the martingale term is $N^{-1}{\int }_0^t{\sum }_{\ell }\ell {\ell }^{\mathsf{T}}{\beta }_{\ell }(Z_s^N)ds$. On a compact region with bounded rates this bracket is of order $1/N$. A Lipschitz drift and the Gronwall inequality transfer martingale concentration to the fluid limit.

At the unscaled state $(x,y)$, write the Lévy kernel of a Markov jump process on jump displacements $z$ asThe destination-kernel convention translates each Dirac mass by $(x,y)$. The total holding rate is the mass of this kernel. At either zero population the corresponding death rates vanish, so no negative states are reached. Births in the total population are bounded by a Yule process with per-individual rate $\lambda$, while deaths only decrease it; this also gives nonexplosion.

Put $Z^N=(X/N,Y/N)$. This is a density-dependent Markov jump process, with jumps of size $1/N$ and rates of order $N$. Its drift gives the deterministic approximationUniqueness preserves the diagonal $x=y=z$. For positive $\lambda ,\mu$, the resulting logistic differential equation has solutionIf $\lambda <\mu$, it decreases from one to $\lambda /\mu$; if $\lambda >\mu$, it increases to that same equilibrium; equality gives the constant solution one. In particular positive rates do not give extinction on this exactly symmetric deterministic trajectory. Transverse perturbations behave differently: subtracting the equations gives $(x-y{)}^{\prime }=\lambda (x-y)$, so the positive symmetric equilibrium has an unstable difference direction. The symmetric competition model distinguishes diagonal logistic relaxation from this symmetry-breaking instability.

For an explicit error estimate, use the martingale decomposition of a density-dependent jump process:Fix $t_0,\delta >0$ and choose $R>{\sup }_{t\le t_0}z(t)+\delta$. Stop at the first exit ${\sigma }_R$ from the box $[0,R{]}^2$. On that box, $F$ has Lipschitz constant $L_R=\lambda +2\mu R$ in the supremum norm. Each coordinate of $M^N$ has jumps bounded by $1/N$ and predictable quadratic variation at mostIndeed a coordinate's positive and negative jump rates are $N\lambda x$ and $N\mu xy$, and the squared jump size is $1/N^2$. Independent jump clocks give zero cross-bracket.

The Bernstein bound for bounded-jump martingales gives, for each coordinate,The Gronwall inequality applied up to ${\sigma }_R$ givesAn exit from the box already entails an error larger than $\delta$, by the choice of $R$, so the stopped estimate controls the event of any error on the full interval. Take $\eta =\delta e^{-L_R{t}_0}$ and use the union bound on the two coordinates:For fixed time horizon and tolerance this is exponentially small in $N$, proving a fluid limit. The transverse instability explains why this finite-horizon estimate should not be extrapolated to arbitrarily long times without changing its constants.

A Markov jump process relative to $({\mathcal{F}}_t)$ is an adapted càdlàg process with piecewise-constant paths and finitely many jumps on each bounded time interval, whose conditional future law given ${\mathcal{F}}_t$ depends only on its current state. For a time-homogeneous process on a countable state space, write $q(x,y)\ge 0$ for its transition rates and $q(x)={\sum }_{y\ne x}q(x,y)<\infty$. In state $x$, the holding time is exponential of rate $q(x)$ and the next state is $y$ with probability $q(x,y)/q(x)$; a zero rate makes the state absorbing. The generator is $\mathcal{A}f(x)={\sum }_{y\ne x}q(x,y)(f(y)-f(x))$. Nonexplosion is included here so that the process is defined at every finite time.

Here is a finite-jump, bounded-rate form of the Kurtz fluid limit theorem. For each $N$, let $Z^N$ be a chain on a countable state space $E_N\subseteq {\mathbb{R}}^d$ with jumps $\ell /N$ at rates $N{\beta }_{\ell }(z)$, with $\ell$ in a fixed finite subset $\mathcal{J}\subset {\mathbb{R}}^d$. Assume the nonnegative ${\beta }_{\ell }$ are uniformly bounded, admissible jumps remain in the state space, andis globally Lipschitz with constant $L$. Suppose $Z_0^N\to z_0$ in probability, and let $z$ solve $\dot{z}=F(z)$, $z(0)=z_0$. Then for every finite $T$,Bounded total jump rates ensure nonexplosion; the globally Lipschitz drift gives a unique global ODE solution. These explicit hypotheses suffice for the population example, without needing a more general local version of the theorem.

To prove the result, compensate the jumps of this density-dependent Markov jump process. The drift and the coordinate martingales satisfyHere $⟨M^{N,i}⟩$ is predictable quadratic variation, not the sum of realized squared jumps. The compensation identity follows because each possible increment $\ell /N$ has intensity $N{\beta }_{\ell }$, and its squared coordinate increment contributes ${\ell }_i^2{\beta }_{\ell }/N$ per unit time. Bounded rates and jump sizes make these martingales square-integrable.

We use the Doob L2 maximal inequality in the explicit form $\mathbb{E}{\sup }_{s\le T}|M_s{|}^2\le 4\mathbb{E}|M_T{|}^2$ for a scalar square-integrable martingale starting at zero. Applying it coordinatewise and setting $K={\sup }_z{\sum }_{\ell }|\ell {|}^2{\beta }_{\ell }(z)<\infty$ givesSubtract the ODE integral equation. Lipschitz continuity and Gronwall's inequality yieldThe first term tends to zero in probability by hypothesis, and the second by its maximal second-moment estimate. More quantitatively, for $\delta >0$,This proves the stated uniform finite-horizon fluid limit.

For the cells, division replaces one cell by two and increases population by one. At population $k\le N$, the total rate is the sum of the $k$ identical cell rates, namelyThe state $N$ is absorbing. Set $Z_t^N={\xi }_t/N$; its jump is $1/N$ with rate $N\beta (z)$, where $\beta (z)=z(1-z)$ on $[0,1]$. Extending this function by zero outside $[0,1]$ makes it bounded, nonnegative and globally Lipschitz, with Lipschitz constant one. Starting from $Z_0^N=p$, or from $\lfloor pN\rfloor /N$ when integer rounding is necessary, the limiting ODE is the logistic differential equationSeparation of variables, or differentiating $z/(1-z)$, gives its solution. The logistic cell-division process therefore satisfiesHere $K\le 1/4$, so the maximal martingale second moment is at most $T/N$. With exact initial density $p$, the preceding pathwise bound even gives $\mathbb{E}{\sup }_{s\le T}|Z_s^N-z(s){|}^2\le T{e}^{2T}/N$. With integer rounding, the bound $\mathbb{E}{\sup }_{s\le T}|Z_s^N-z(s){|}^2\le 2e^{2T}(T/N+1/N^2)$ follows from $|Z_0^N-p|\le 1/N$ and $(a+b{)}^2\le 2a^2+2b^2$. Thus the deterministic logistic curve approximates the density with fluctuations of order $N^{-1/2}$ on fixed time intervals. The convergence statement is on finite horizons; it does not interchange the limits $t\to \infty$ and $N\to \infty$.