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By Rainer R. Schoch and Hans-Dieter Sues. Nature 523, 584–587.

The turtle problem is the difficulty of placing turtles on the reptile phylogenetic tree, historically intensified by conflict between their unusual skulls and other anatomical or molecular evidence. Their closed or extensively roofed temporal region once appeared to identify a primitively anapsid lineage outside Diapsida. Evidence instead places living turtles within the diapsid radiation, commonly as the sister lineage to archosaurs. The inference requires distinguishing retention of an ancestral state from secondary modification.

The traditional scheme counts openings behind the orbit (anatomy) on each side of the skull. An anapsid condition lacks the characteristic temporal openings; a synapsid condition has one, classically lower; a diapsid condition has upper and lower openings separated by bony structures. These descriptions originally provided convenient anatomical categories. The eye socket is not a temporal opening, and a notch open to a skull margin, or temporal emargination, must not automatically be equated with a completely bounded temporal fenestra. bone identities and contacts matter as much as the count.

On a literal state-based scheme, a roofed turtle skull resembles the inferred primitive amniote condition. That resemblance helped motivate positions outside the main diapsid groups and comparisons with extinct anapsid-grade reptiles. Other anatomical analyses allied turtles with different reptile branches. Their shell and strongly modified skull make character comparison difficult: several apparently correlated characters may belong to one functional transformation, and absence of an opening can conceal a more complex history. A shared absence is especially weak evidence when the opening can be closed independently.

Molecular evidence provides an independent character system. Nicholas G. Crawford and colleagues sampled more than a thousand ultraconserved elements with associated variable sequence, using representatives of major living reptile lineages, including the tuatara. Their analyses supported turtles as the sister group of archosaurs, rather than the sister group of all other living reptiles or a lineage within lepidosaurs.^[ref] In this hypothesis, crocodilians and birds are closer to one another than either is to turtles. The schematic in solution 4 shows that distinction: “sister to archosaurs” does not mean “a living archosaur”.

A large number of aligned bases is not a substitute for checking the analysis. Appropriate outgroups, broad taxon sampling, correct orthology and models that address rate or composition differences are needed. Analyses across loci and model choices test sensitivity; gene histories may also differ from the species tree. Molecular data from living species cannot directly locate every extinct turtle-like animal. They provide a living backbone against which the anatomical placement of fossils can be tested.

Stem-turtle discoveries provide a particularly discriminating anatomical test. Pappochelys, a Middle Triassic animal described by Rainer R. Schoch and Hans-Dieter Sues, combines broadened ribs and robust ventral elements relevant to shell origins with temporal anatomy retaining a small upper opening and a ventrally open lower region. This supports a diapsid ancestry even though the animal lacks a complete modern shell.^[ref] Its significance is the associated character combination, not merely a hole selected because it agrees with a molecular tree. It shows that the shell and temporal roof need not have evolved as one indivisible package.

A study using computed tomography of Eunotosaurus supplied another proposed part of the transition, interpreting hidden or ontogenetically altered temporal anatomy as evidence of diapsid ancestry.^[ref] The proposed placement of such early forms and the biological homology of particular openings remain matters for character analysis. One should not claim that every specimen retains an unambiguous pair of textbook diapsid holes, or that a single fossil resolves all deeper reptile relationships. Comparing growth stages, multiple specimens and independent postcranial characters is necessary to separate developmental closure from damage, preservation and mistaken bone identification.

The general limitation is homoplasy. Openings can expand, merge with a margin, lose separating bars or become secondarily roofed; apparently similar counts can consequently have different histories. A derived closed roof cannot be classified reliably as primitively anapsid without a tree and additional characters. Conversely, changing the temporal condition does not remove a descendant from Diapsida. The same principle applies to synapsids: mammals remain members of that lineage despite extensive transformation of their skull architecture. An anatomical grade is not automatically a clade.

Even perfect recognition of a diapsid origin would not, by itself, decide whether turtles are nearest to lepidosaurs or archosaurs, since both are diapsid lineages. Resolving that question requires informative derived characters within the radiation, rather than recounting the ancestral pair of openings. Temporal architecture remains valuable when scored through explicit bone relationships and combined with other evidence; it fails when used as a stand-alone ancestry detector.

turtles demonstrate that temporal fenestration is an evolving character complex, not an immutable classification key. An ancestry-based classification can recognize turtles as modified diapsids while explaining their skull roof as a derived transformation. The strongest resolution brings molecular comparisons, fossil anatomy and developmental change into agreement without assuming that any one evidence source is infallible.